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It was two months ago when the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were a sign or the reason for Villa's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, however, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. As the England international curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss discarded his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six games, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?

This is a particularly tough question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.

Per the data, in only two games has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with some precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus United.

His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had more shots and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet find their top level.

• The main striker might resume scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho might become the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential England player.

The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.